Numbers...do they lie?
Numbers, numbers, numbers. We all know the adage "lies, damn lies and statistics". But is it true? If you toss a coin 400,919 times and it comes up heads every single time, is it still 50/50 that the next toss will come up head again? You can demonstrate this with math, but odds are very good that anyone asked to bet on the outcome will bet tails. After all, it has to come up eventually.
That's a dangerous notion. Let's suppose you figure you will eventually win a hand of blackjack. So if you bet a dollar and lose, next hand you bet two dollars. Then four, and then eight. The progression would go like this from there:
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2048
4096
8192
16384
And if you win that hand you'll have put over $15,000 at risk to win a dollar. Does that make sense? Assuming of course you didn't run smack dab into a table limit of $500 or $1,000 or if you went to a high-roller place, $10,000. The late Benny Binion, founder of the Horseshoe Casino was willing to book any bet in any amount. But only if you bet that amount on the first wager. Want to play blackjack for $1 million per hand? Bet it on the first hand and play all the hands you want at that level.
I bring up numbers because there are a few that crossed my mind last night. The first one was 19. That's the number of drivers I counted who were using cellphones during the 118 minutes I spent in freeway traffic. Those are only the ones I happened to notice. I'm sure there were more. Now apparently, the fact that a ticket for using a cellphone while driving carries a first-offense fine of $158 advertised on the traffic status signs alongside the freeway isn't enough of a disincentive to get people to stop doing this. Maybe they should start the punishment with a 30 day suspension of your driver's license (exception to allow you to commute directly to and from work) and make the second offense 90 days.
1500 was on my mind. Every day I get a phone call from a computer asking me to record my "vitals". Weight, blood pressure, heart rate and I have to answer questions about my breathing. It always includes "diet tips" and the one about limiting my intake of sodium to 1500 milligrams a day is getting old. I love salty foods. I do my best to limit my salt intake at every meal. The constant reminders don't help.
$130 and $315. These are numbers involved in bypassing lines at Disney World. The $315 is what you pay per hour for the "VIP tour", where you go to the front of the line everywhere, get a guide taking you around and so on. But for $130 what some people are doing is hiring a "handicapped" person to go with them, which also gets you past the lines for rides. A woman interviewed for the story that revealed this is going on said "this is how the 1% visits Disney World." I prefer to think of it as how the 1% acts in a disgusting, revolting manner.
This Date in History:
On this date in 1152, Henry II of England marries Eleanor of Aquitaine.
On this date in 1631, John Winthrop becomes the first governor of Massachusetts.
On this date in 1652, Rhode Island passes the first law in English-speaking North America that makes slavery illegal.
On this date in 1763, fire destroys a large part of Montreal, Quebec.
On this date in 1804, Napoleon Bonaparte is proclaimed Emperor of France by the French Senate.
On this date in 1860, Abraham Lincoln wins the nomination of the Republican Party to run for the presidency, over William H. Seward.
On this date in 1896, the U.S. Supreme Court rules in Plessy v Ferguson that the doctrine of "separate but equal" is constitutional.
On this date in 1910, Earth passes through the tail of Hailey's Comet.
On this date in 1933, FDR signs the law creating the Tennessee Valley Authority.
On this date in 1953, Jackie Cochran becomes the first woman to break the sound barrier.
On this date in 1974, India becomes the sixth nation to test a nuclear weapon.
On this date in 1980, Mount St. Helens erupts. 57 people are killed and the eruption causes $3 billion in damage.
Also on this date in 1980, students in Kwang-Ju, South Korea begin demonstrating against the new regime of President Chun Doo-hwan. The Army will respond, killing more than 2,000.
Famous Folk Born on this Date:
Mathew Brady
Nicholas II of Russia
Frank Capra
Jacob K. Javits
Fred Perry
Perry Como
Dame Margot Fonteyn
Pope John Paul II
Bill Macy
Pernell Roberts
Warren Rudman
Jimmy Snuka
Reggie Jackson
Chow Yun-fat
Mike Whitmarsh
Marty McSorley
Nancy Juvonen (Jimmy Fallon's wife and Drew Barrymore's producing partner)
Martika
Tina Fey
Movie Quote of the Day comes from "Music and Lyrics":
Alex Fletcher: You're Cole Porter in panties. Of course, having said that, Cole Porter probably did wear panties.
#2
Chris Riley: Why do you have a plant lady? Why do you even have plants?
Alex Fletcher: Because, from time to time, ladies accompany me back to the apartment and one of them once mentioned that plants make women comfortable.
Chris Riley: Is that true? Plants make women comfortable? Well, maybe if I had plants I'd still be married.
Alex Fletcher: Yes, I think that was the problem; not Susan's affair and raging nymphomania but your lack of vegetation.
That's a dangerous notion. Let's suppose you figure you will eventually win a hand of blackjack. So if you bet a dollar and lose, next hand you bet two dollars. Then four, and then eight. The progression would go like this from there:
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2048
4096
8192
16384
And if you win that hand you'll have put over $15,000 at risk to win a dollar. Does that make sense? Assuming of course you didn't run smack dab into a table limit of $500 or $1,000 or if you went to a high-roller place, $10,000. The late Benny Binion, founder of the Horseshoe Casino was willing to book any bet in any amount. But only if you bet that amount on the first wager. Want to play blackjack for $1 million per hand? Bet it on the first hand and play all the hands you want at that level.
I bring up numbers because there are a few that crossed my mind last night. The first one was 19. That's the number of drivers I counted who were using cellphones during the 118 minutes I spent in freeway traffic. Those are only the ones I happened to notice. I'm sure there were more. Now apparently, the fact that a ticket for using a cellphone while driving carries a first-offense fine of $158 advertised on the traffic status signs alongside the freeway isn't enough of a disincentive to get people to stop doing this. Maybe they should start the punishment with a 30 day suspension of your driver's license (exception to allow you to commute directly to and from work) and make the second offense 90 days.
1500 was on my mind. Every day I get a phone call from a computer asking me to record my "vitals". Weight, blood pressure, heart rate and I have to answer questions about my breathing. It always includes "diet tips" and the one about limiting my intake of sodium to 1500 milligrams a day is getting old. I love salty foods. I do my best to limit my salt intake at every meal. The constant reminders don't help.
$130 and $315. These are numbers involved in bypassing lines at Disney World. The $315 is what you pay per hour for the "VIP tour", where you go to the front of the line everywhere, get a guide taking you around and so on. But for $130 what some people are doing is hiring a "handicapped" person to go with them, which also gets you past the lines for rides. A woman interviewed for the story that revealed this is going on said "this is how the 1% visits Disney World." I prefer to think of it as how the 1% acts in a disgusting, revolting manner.
This Date in History:
On this date in 1152, Henry II of England marries Eleanor of Aquitaine.
On this date in 1631, John Winthrop becomes the first governor of Massachusetts.
On this date in 1652, Rhode Island passes the first law in English-speaking North America that makes slavery illegal.
On this date in 1763, fire destroys a large part of Montreal, Quebec.
On this date in 1804, Napoleon Bonaparte is proclaimed Emperor of France by the French Senate.
On this date in 1860, Abraham Lincoln wins the nomination of the Republican Party to run for the presidency, over William H. Seward.
On this date in 1896, the U.S. Supreme Court rules in Plessy v Ferguson that the doctrine of "separate but equal" is constitutional.
On this date in 1910, Earth passes through the tail of Hailey's Comet.
On this date in 1933, FDR signs the law creating the Tennessee Valley Authority.
On this date in 1953, Jackie Cochran becomes the first woman to break the sound barrier.
On this date in 1974, India becomes the sixth nation to test a nuclear weapon.
On this date in 1980, Mount St. Helens erupts. 57 people are killed and the eruption causes $3 billion in damage.
Also on this date in 1980, students in Kwang-Ju, South Korea begin demonstrating against the new regime of President Chun Doo-hwan. The Army will respond, killing more than 2,000.
Famous Folk Born on this Date:
Mathew Brady
Nicholas II of Russia
Frank Capra
Jacob K. Javits
Fred Perry
Perry Como
Dame Margot Fonteyn
Pope John Paul II
Bill Macy
Pernell Roberts
Warren Rudman
Jimmy Snuka
Reggie Jackson
Chow Yun-fat
Mike Whitmarsh
Marty McSorley
Nancy Juvonen (Jimmy Fallon's wife and Drew Barrymore's producing partner)
Martika
Tina Fey
Movie Quote of the Day comes from "Music and Lyrics":
Alex Fletcher: You're Cole Porter in panties. Of course, having said that, Cole Porter probably did wear panties.
#2
Chris Riley: Why do you have a plant lady? Why do you even have plants?
Alex Fletcher: Because, from time to time, ladies accompany me back to the apartment and one of them once mentioned that plants make women comfortable.
Chris Riley: Is that true? Plants make women comfortable? Well, maybe if I had plants I'd still be married.
Alex Fletcher: Yes, I think that was the problem; not Susan's affair and raging nymphomania but your lack of vegetation.
posted by me at 10:58 AM
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