The late Harry Chapin is one of my favorite singers...

and he had a way of telling stories in his songs.  One of those songs is called "A Better Place to Be" and in a concert that became part of his album (back in those days we had albums, not CDs) "Greatest Stories Live".  I owned that album and now own it on CD.  When that song plays, he explains that the song is set in a place called Watertown, New York and he says "I spent a week there one afternoon."

I raise that lyric because today felt like I spent an entire week in rush hour traffic.  I had finished up at the VA (fortunately or unfortunately, I'll be there at least weekly through the end of the year, minimum) and had to drive to Hollywood at the wrong hour of the day.  That's why it took more like 100 minutes to make what should have been a 30-40 minute drive under normal conditions.

So to pass the time I listened to talk radio and Congressman Tom McClintock was on.  He's a Republican somewhere between conservative and moderate on the viewpoint scale overall, but very conservative on fiscal issues.  At least that's my perception of him, and he was throwing around some interesting numbers.  I'm going to repeat several of them, but they are his and I haven't verified them.  I myself view them with at least a modicum of suspicion.

39
32
82

According to him, over the last ten years, the population has increased 39%, while federal revenue has increased only 32% and during that same period, federal spending has increased 82%.

I'm guessing that's from Oct 2001 through September 2012.  What makes that last number a little suspect is that we've been at war for most of that period, much of it on two fronts.  We had to spend money on several stimulus programs to try to jumpstart the economy.  Okay, you can debate whether or not we had to but the point is we did.  So the huge budget deficit is artificially bigger than it would have been had we not gone to war and had an economic meltdown.

But his next point was very valid.  You could fire every government employee today, close all federal offices and entitlement programs would still consume all of the remaining amount of revenues.  That's frightening.  Raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans will raise maybe $100 billion a year using generous estimates.  We're running a deficit of ten times that amount.

Another number he threw out there is also frightening.  He said that the average person who becomes Medicare eligible in 2012 has paid roughly $100,000 into the Medicare system.  And the average person who becomes eligible for Medicare in 2012 will require the program to spend three times that amount on their care over their remaining life expectancy.  Let's check that first number.  An employee pays 2.9% of their wages, without limit into the Medicare system (yes, that unlimited status isn't all that old, but let's go with it).  1.45% they pay and 1.45% their employer pays on their behalf, which can be viewed as coming from their wages.  $100,000 divided by 2.9% = more than $3.4 million in lifetime wages.  Doesn't add up, does it?  So maybe all of his numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.  Except of course that little point about the fact that government entitlement spending consumes huge amounts of the revenues that come into the goverment's coffers. 

These numbers are from the budget year that ended in September of this year:

Medicare - $484 billion
Social Security - $779 billion
Other health spending (Medi-caid) - $361 billion
Veterans benefits/medical - $129 billion
Income security - $580 billion

Total = $2.3 trillion

Federal revenue from all sources in 2012 = $2.5 trillion.

But he's right if you add in the $225 billion we spend each year financing the national debt.

So any proposal to resolve the so-called fiscal cliff for the long-term has to involve increasing revenues and reducing spending.  The question is how and I don't have any easy answers.  But answers are something we need to be searching for.