Monday, June 25, 2018

Why Maxine Waters' call for confrontation is a bad idea

While I posted the call by Congresswoman Maxine Waters in yesterday's entry in this blog, it bears repeating.

"For these members of his cabinet who remain and try to defend him they're not goint to be able to go to a restaurant, they're not going to be able to stop at a gas station, they're not going to be able to shop at a department store, the people are going to turn on them, they're going to protest, they're going to absolutely harass them until they decide that they're going to tell the president 'no I can't hang with you, this is wrong this is unconscionable and we can't keep doing this to children."

It is easy to seek out confrontation in the era where Donald Trump has lowered the level of facility toward its lowest point in a very long time.  He didn't start the decline.  Anyone who has followed social media since its inception knows that it was the rise of social media that began this descent.

The reason that following the advice of Congresswoman Waters is a bad idea is simple.  November 6, 2018.  That is the date of this year's mid-term elections and the last thing those who oppose the policies of Donald Trump and his Republican supporters in the House and Senate should be doing is energizing Republican voters.

Since 1904, there have been only two mid-term elections where the party holding the White House gained seats in the Congress.  1932 and 2002.  On average, the party holding the White House loses roughly 32 seats in the mid-term elections.  There are two main reasons why this happens.

First and foremost is that the voter turnout in a mid-term election is traditionally much lower than that seen in a presidential election year.  In fact, voter turnout in the 2014 mid-term elections was the lowest in any mid-term since the end of World War II.

The other reason that the opposition party does well in mid-term elections is that they are essentially a referendum on the policies of the current administration.

The way to put a stop to what's going on in our federal government isn't to engage in denying service to those who toil for Trump in his government.  It is to energize the people who want there to be a referendum on his policies to register and then vote.  It is possible to take both the House and the Senate in November for Democrats, if the focus is not on stirring anger and expressing frustration through confrontation.  The focus needs to all about getting our people to the polls.

If this is a war of words, and Donald Trump is using his bully pulpit on Twitter to motivate his support, our response cannot be to pour gasoline on those fires.  We can put them out by changing who controls Congress.  After that we can focus on choosing someone capable of winning the 2020 election to unseat Trump.

Denying his people the right to enjoy a meal or fill their gas tank may be emotionally satisfying for those who thrive on confrontation.  That doesn't make it wise or productive.