Let's talk about risk, baby
Everything in life has at least some element of risk involved. Getting out of bed is risky. Trust me on that one. During my first extended hospitalization, while at the rehab center I tried to get out of bed too quickly and found myself lying on the floor with a sore skull. I've seen several people take falls because they were walking while texting.
We can identify, or perhaps more precisely, quantify the level of risk involved in some things and in others we can't accurately measure the probabilities involved. The biggest casino in the world is not found in Macao or Nevada, but in New York City on Wall Street. The stock markets are a much larger gambling emporium and your broker can't quote you exceedingly accurate odds on the risk factor of a certain investment.
Oh that broker can analyze price/earnings ratios, look at the industry of the investment, sales record, projected growth, financial statements and much more. But they can't tell you that the odds of an event taking place, meaning profit or loss and how much of either, with any specificity.
The exact opposite is true in a casino in Las Vegas, Macao or anywhere else. Actually it's almost always true. There are some games where you play against others and therefore the odds of something happening will change. Take Texas Hold'em. One mathematician calculated that if you are dealt a pair of pocket aces, that hand will win 41% of the time. But that means wins before the flop, after the flop, after the turn and after the river.
Now if you're watching the game on television, they can put up accurate percentage probabilities for a player still in the hand to win, because they see all the cards of all the other players. A good player takes guesses on what those other cards are and can calculate their chance of winning in their head. But it is still not exact (although it's pretty good for the top players).
However, when we move over to the craps table, suddenly the levels of risk can be precisely predicted. That's because there are a fixed number of combinations that a pair of dice can make. They list out like this:
2 - one combination
3 - two combinations
4 - three combinations
5 - four combinations
6 - five combinations
7 - six combinations
8 - five combinations
9 - four combinations
10 - three combinations
11 - two combinations
12 - one combination
So when the new shooter picks up the dice and bets on the pass line, or the don't pass line, the odds are easily calculated. If he (or she) bets on the pass line, on the first roll there are eight combinations that win (the six 7's and the two 11's). There are four combinations that lose (the 2, the 12 and the two 3's). So the chances the shooter will win on the first roll are 9-2 (36 possible combinations of dice against the 8 winning combinations).
I could go on but I think I've made my point (pun intended). Any bet any player in a casino makes where they are playing against the "house" has precise odds. The level of risk is known. Going even further, you can calculate the percentage "edge" the casino has against you by taking what a winning bet pays off versus what the true odds of the event happening are.
Without going into the math, if you bet on the pass line, the house has an edge of roughly 1.4% against you. If you wager $100, you should win back $98.60 over time. Then you'd win back 98.6% of the $98.60 if you wager it again and so on until you have nothing left.
But if you do something called "taking the odds" on the point, you're getting to make a wager where the house has no edge. The odds of throwing a 6 before you throw a 7 are 6-5 and you get paid 6-5. However if you choose to bet on the 6 directly, while the odds remain 6-5, the payoff is only 7-6.
One more example and we'll move on. Walk with me over to the coffee shop and we'll grab a meal while we play the worst game in the house for the gamblers. Keno. On paper it looks great. Pick eight numbers out of 80, they draw 20, and if you hit all eight out of eight, your $1 wager becomes $30,000 in some casinos. That's a great return on a bet. Until you learn that the odds against hitting all 8 numbers are 230,114 to 1. The house has a huge edge on this bet. Even if you get lucky enough to hit the wager, you're only being paid a little more than 1/9th of the odds you just beat. Horrible odds. It's a very profitable game...for the casino.
So why all this talk of risk? Because everyone is worried over the risks involved in how the U.S. deals with the use of chemical weapons by Syria. The risks here can't be precisely calculated. The outcome of the various choices available to President Obama can't be predicted with precision. What will happen if we impose sanctions, as opposed to a limited military strike is something they can guess at. Past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior but it isn't foolproof.
That is why while I back the use of decisive force in response to Syria or anyone else using chemical weapons, analysis of the risks involved and choosing which military option to use are critical elements. While I have a lot more faith in Chuck Hagel sitting in the big chair at the Department of Defense than I had in former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, I still worry. Hagel is a veteran with combat experience, two Purple Hearts and understands the realities of war far better than the chickenhawk Cheney ever will. But Cheney was successful as leader of the DOD during his tenure there because of his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), Colin Powell. And the fact that the commander of the unified Central Command (CENTCOM), H. Norman Schwartzkopf was a brilliant military leader. The current chairman of the JCS and the current commander in chief of NTCOM have been to war, but not in the way that Powell and Schwartzkopf were in battle. They saw direct action as infantrymen. Schwartzkopf won three Silver Stars for valor and led from the front.
But even with the shortcomings of Hagel's top two generals who will be involved if we put troops on the ground in Syria, I feel more comfortable with Hagel being the man assessing the levels of risk involved; and feel confident he won't let us deploy troops there.
* * *
I'm having a weird birthday for me. Usually I do stuff. Shopping. Eating out. In fact, usually I'll raise the bar of eating out on my birthday. I thought about hitting up the local Hooters, but realized I'd have the same kind of salad and sandwich I would get here. So why walk all that way from the parking lot to the front door in this heat? I really didn't need that piece of chocolate mousse cake and I'm well aware that the only date a guy my age can get at Hooters is on the overpriced calendar they would have tried to sell me.
Since I'm playing trivia tomorrow night with my friends, I put off the usual steak dinner until then. I'm actually enjoying the restful day at home.
But I did think back to my birthday back 15 years ago, when I was turning 39 rather than 54. I remember getting up and going out for a 39 mile bike ride, at least one mile for each year. I'd made that a ritual, but I couldn't ride a bicycle ten miles these days. At least I don't think I could. I actually put a few miles on the stationary bike when they did my last heart stress test.
Maybe someday I can do that again. Probably not. But I can strive toward it.
* * *
Random Ponderings:
I wonder if people who are renouncing their U.S. citizenship for tax reasons really understand that they can't just stay in the U.S. anytime they like for as long as they like afterward. They will have to get visa to enter and remain. ICE may not be going after illegal immigrants but they will definitely go after expatriates trying to stay here illegally.
I wish Lolo Jones had let me know she wanted to pack on 27 pounds. I'd have happily given her 27 or more of mine.
Why do television stations and/or networks feel the need to show three straight hours of re-runs of a program in syndication. If you tune in daily, that's 15 episodes per week, or more than two seasons worth every month. It's a lot.
Wonder if the growing public outcry about gratuities being added automatically to restaurant bills for large groups had anything to do with the IRS changing the tax rules about those particular gratuities? The IRS just ruled that they will no longer be treated as tips, but as regular wages. More paperwork for the restaurants, more income being taxed for servers. I think we'll see fewer and fewer places tacking on a gratuity any longer.
Kudos to Jesse Bongiovi for making the Notre Dame football team as a walk-on.
There is something seriously wrong with the NCAA rules about gifts to athletes that prevent football players from keeping a game ball they are awarded until after they graduate. That's so the $65 value of the ball won't be counted against the annual limit on gifts the player can receive. Sheesh!
I wouldn't have tried the Taco Bell Volcano Nachos under any circumstance but learning that one order has over 1800 mg of sodium is a great reason for everyone to avoid them.
Who let a dog attack the honorary mayor of Talkeetna, Alaska? Even when that mayor is a 16 year old cat named Stubbs, that's not acceptable.
As someone who was a volleyball player and having been a coach of girls high school teams, and as a former official, I truly appreciated this video. I hope you enjoy it: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/indiana-volleyball-player-saves-point-incredible-kick-save-213426780.html
Clearly Warren Buffett doesn't want the average investor owning stock in his company, or he wouldn't have let the price of one share in it climb to $168,180 (as of last week).
Lamar Odom is in rehab. Lamar Odom is not in rehab. Jack Nicholson is retiring from acting. Jack Nicholson is not retiring from acting. Would the entertainment media get stuff right before putting it out? Is it that hard to confirm information?
* * *
This Date In History:
On this date in 917, Lin Yan declares himself emperor, establishing the Southern Han state in China.
On this date in 1698, Tsar Peter I of Russian established a tax on beards for all men except members of the clergy and peasantry.
On this date in 1774, the First Continental Congress assembles in Philadelphia.
On this date in 1836, Sam Houston is elected the first president of the Republic of Texas.
On this date in 1877, Chief Crazy Horse is bayoneted and killed by a guard at Camp Robinson. He was supposed resisting his imprisonment.
On this date in 1905, Japan and Russia sign the Treaty of Portsmouth which ends the Russo-Japanese War. President Teddy Roosevelt mediated the peace agreement and would later be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.
On this date in 1906, the first "legal" forward pass in football was thrown and caught.
On this date in 1927, the first Oswald the Lucky Rabbit cartoon, "Trolley Troubles" is released by Universal Pictures. Walt Disney produced it.
On this date in 1945, a woman suspected of being the infamous "Tokyo Rose" is arrested in Yokohama. Iva Toguri D'Aquino was convicted of one count of treason in 1949, but she was pardoned by President Gerald Ford in 1977 when it was proven that key witnesses against her were forced to lie.
On this date in 1960, Muhammad Ali (then Cassius Clay) is awarded a gold medal for boxing in the Summer Olympic Games in Rome.
On this date in 1969, Lt. William Calley is charged with six specifications of premeditated murder in connection with the My Lai Massacre.
On this date in 1972, terrorists calling themselves Black September attack and take 11 Israelis as hostages at the Summer Olympic Games in Munich.
On this date in 1975, Lynnette "Squeaky" Fromme attempts to assassinate President Gerald R. Ford.
On this date in 1984, Western Australia becomes the last Australian state to abolish capital punishment.
* * *
Famous Folk Born On This Date:
Louis VII of France
Peter IV of Aragon
Jack Daniel
Thomas E. Watson
Cornelius Vanderbilt III
Nap Lajoie
Arthur Nielsen
Daryl F. Zanuck
Jack Valenti
David Hamer
Paul Volcker
Bob Newhart
Carol Lawrence
Dennis Letts
John Danforth
William Devane
George Lazenby
Raquel Welch
Werner Herzog
Al Stewart
Dennis Dugan
Freddie Mercury
Loudon Wainwright III
Chip Davis
Michael Keaton
Dweezil Zappa
Paddy Considine
Rose McGowan
Movie quotes for today come from the twisted but fun film "Jawbreaker" from 1999, which Rose McGowan had a major role in:
Courtney: Ok, reality check, Liz is in the trunk of this car. And she is dead. That is a sad, fucked up thing, but you are going to walk into that school and strut your shit down the hallway like everything is peachy fucking keen.
#2
Courtney: Wait a minute.
Julie: What?
Courtney: Rape... they'll check to se if she was raped right? Maybe Liz had a friend over, you know, Mommy and Daddy's last night away, maybe he's from school, maybe not. But definitely into kink. He got a little rough, went a little to far, you know, there's a fine line between pleasure and pain. She screamed for help, but no one could hear her. Her screams were muffled by the huge candy ball, she tried, but there was nothing, only sugary sweet death.
Marcie: Oh my God, that like, totally gave me the chills.
#3
Narrator: First you need to know something about them. The beautiful ones. The flawless four. Everyone wanted to be them. You know 'em they went to your school too. They totally ruled. The one in the green that's Courtney she was the leader she was like Satan in heels. The blonde Marcie Fox a legend in her own little mind, known to herself as 'foxy'. Oh, the leggy one with the pig tails in Julie, doomed to be popular because of that face and because she was best friends with the one in the pink. That's Liz Purr. She was special. Everybody loved Liz not just because she was beautiful and popular, and rich and smart she was all of those things but more than anything she was sweet. Courtney ruled with terror Liz ruled with kindness, she was like the Princess Di of Reagan High and that pissed Courtney off. Liz Purr was well, she was perfect. I used to dream about what it would be like to be her, Elizabeth Purr. Its a shame about what happened to Liz. That was no way to wake up on your seventeenth birthday.
We can identify, or perhaps more precisely, quantify the level of risk involved in some things and in others we can't accurately measure the probabilities involved. The biggest casino in the world is not found in Macao or Nevada, but in New York City on Wall Street. The stock markets are a much larger gambling emporium and your broker can't quote you exceedingly accurate odds on the risk factor of a certain investment.
Oh that broker can analyze price/earnings ratios, look at the industry of the investment, sales record, projected growth, financial statements and much more. But they can't tell you that the odds of an event taking place, meaning profit or loss and how much of either, with any specificity.
The exact opposite is true in a casino in Las Vegas, Macao or anywhere else. Actually it's almost always true. There are some games where you play against others and therefore the odds of something happening will change. Take Texas Hold'em. One mathematician calculated that if you are dealt a pair of pocket aces, that hand will win 41% of the time. But that means wins before the flop, after the flop, after the turn and after the river.
Now if you're watching the game on television, they can put up accurate percentage probabilities for a player still in the hand to win, because they see all the cards of all the other players. A good player takes guesses on what those other cards are and can calculate their chance of winning in their head. But it is still not exact (although it's pretty good for the top players).
However, when we move over to the craps table, suddenly the levels of risk can be precisely predicted. That's because there are a fixed number of combinations that a pair of dice can make. They list out like this:
2 - one combination
3 - two combinations
4 - three combinations
5 - four combinations
6 - five combinations
7 - six combinations
8 - five combinations
9 - four combinations
10 - three combinations
11 - two combinations
12 - one combination
So when the new shooter picks up the dice and bets on the pass line, or the don't pass line, the odds are easily calculated. If he (or she) bets on the pass line, on the first roll there are eight combinations that win (the six 7's and the two 11's). There are four combinations that lose (the 2, the 12 and the two 3's). So the chances the shooter will win on the first roll are 9-2 (36 possible combinations of dice against the 8 winning combinations).
I could go on but I think I've made my point (pun intended). Any bet any player in a casino makes where they are playing against the "house" has precise odds. The level of risk is known. Going even further, you can calculate the percentage "edge" the casino has against you by taking what a winning bet pays off versus what the true odds of the event happening are.
Without going into the math, if you bet on the pass line, the house has an edge of roughly 1.4% against you. If you wager $100, you should win back $98.60 over time. Then you'd win back 98.6% of the $98.60 if you wager it again and so on until you have nothing left.
But if you do something called "taking the odds" on the point, you're getting to make a wager where the house has no edge. The odds of throwing a 6 before you throw a 7 are 6-5 and you get paid 6-5. However if you choose to bet on the 6 directly, while the odds remain 6-5, the payoff is only 7-6.
One more example and we'll move on. Walk with me over to the coffee shop and we'll grab a meal while we play the worst game in the house for the gamblers. Keno. On paper it looks great. Pick eight numbers out of 80, they draw 20, and if you hit all eight out of eight, your $1 wager becomes $30,000 in some casinos. That's a great return on a bet. Until you learn that the odds against hitting all 8 numbers are 230,114 to 1. The house has a huge edge on this bet. Even if you get lucky enough to hit the wager, you're only being paid a little more than 1/9th of the odds you just beat. Horrible odds. It's a very profitable game...for the casino.
So why all this talk of risk? Because everyone is worried over the risks involved in how the U.S. deals with the use of chemical weapons by Syria. The risks here can't be precisely calculated. The outcome of the various choices available to President Obama can't be predicted with precision. What will happen if we impose sanctions, as opposed to a limited military strike is something they can guess at. Past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior but it isn't foolproof.
That is why while I back the use of decisive force in response to Syria or anyone else using chemical weapons, analysis of the risks involved and choosing which military option to use are critical elements. While I have a lot more faith in Chuck Hagel sitting in the big chair at the Department of Defense than I had in former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, I still worry. Hagel is a veteran with combat experience, two Purple Hearts and understands the realities of war far better than the chickenhawk Cheney ever will. But Cheney was successful as leader of the DOD during his tenure there because of his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), Colin Powell. And the fact that the commander of the unified Central Command (CENTCOM), H. Norman Schwartzkopf was a brilliant military leader. The current chairman of the JCS and the current commander in chief of NTCOM have been to war, but not in the way that Powell and Schwartzkopf were in battle. They saw direct action as infantrymen. Schwartzkopf won three Silver Stars for valor and led from the front.
But even with the shortcomings of Hagel's top two generals who will be involved if we put troops on the ground in Syria, I feel more comfortable with Hagel being the man assessing the levels of risk involved; and feel confident he won't let us deploy troops there.
* * *
I'm having a weird birthday for me. Usually I do stuff. Shopping. Eating out. In fact, usually I'll raise the bar of eating out on my birthday. I thought about hitting up the local Hooters, but realized I'd have the same kind of salad and sandwich I would get here. So why walk all that way from the parking lot to the front door in this heat? I really didn't need that piece of chocolate mousse cake and I'm well aware that the only date a guy my age can get at Hooters is on the overpriced calendar they would have tried to sell me.
Since I'm playing trivia tomorrow night with my friends, I put off the usual steak dinner until then. I'm actually enjoying the restful day at home.
But I did think back to my birthday back 15 years ago, when I was turning 39 rather than 54. I remember getting up and going out for a 39 mile bike ride, at least one mile for each year. I'd made that a ritual, but I couldn't ride a bicycle ten miles these days. At least I don't think I could. I actually put a few miles on the stationary bike when they did my last heart stress test.
Maybe someday I can do that again. Probably not. But I can strive toward it.
* * *
Random Ponderings:
I wonder if people who are renouncing their U.S. citizenship for tax reasons really understand that they can't just stay in the U.S. anytime they like for as long as they like afterward. They will have to get visa to enter and remain. ICE may not be going after illegal immigrants but they will definitely go after expatriates trying to stay here illegally.
I wish Lolo Jones had let me know she wanted to pack on 27 pounds. I'd have happily given her 27 or more of mine.
Why do television stations and/or networks feel the need to show three straight hours of re-runs of a program in syndication. If you tune in daily, that's 15 episodes per week, or more than two seasons worth every month. It's a lot.
Wonder if the growing public outcry about gratuities being added automatically to restaurant bills for large groups had anything to do with the IRS changing the tax rules about those particular gratuities? The IRS just ruled that they will no longer be treated as tips, but as regular wages. More paperwork for the restaurants, more income being taxed for servers. I think we'll see fewer and fewer places tacking on a gratuity any longer.
Kudos to Jesse Bongiovi for making the Notre Dame football team as a walk-on.
There is something seriously wrong with the NCAA rules about gifts to athletes that prevent football players from keeping a game ball they are awarded until after they graduate. That's so the $65 value of the ball won't be counted against the annual limit on gifts the player can receive. Sheesh!
I wouldn't have tried the Taco Bell Volcano Nachos under any circumstance but learning that one order has over 1800 mg of sodium is a great reason for everyone to avoid them.
Who let a dog attack the honorary mayor of Talkeetna, Alaska? Even when that mayor is a 16 year old cat named Stubbs, that's not acceptable.
As someone who was a volleyball player and having been a coach of girls high school teams, and as a former official, I truly appreciated this video. I hope you enjoy it: http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/indiana-volleyball-player-saves-point-incredible-kick-save-213426780.html
Clearly Warren Buffett doesn't want the average investor owning stock in his company, or he wouldn't have let the price of one share in it climb to $168,180 (as of last week).
Lamar Odom is in rehab. Lamar Odom is not in rehab. Jack Nicholson is retiring from acting. Jack Nicholson is not retiring from acting. Would the entertainment media get stuff right before putting it out? Is it that hard to confirm information?
* * *
This Date In History:
On this date in 917, Lin Yan declares himself emperor, establishing the Southern Han state in China.
On this date in 1698, Tsar Peter I of Russian established a tax on beards for all men except members of the clergy and peasantry.
On this date in 1774, the First Continental Congress assembles in Philadelphia.
On this date in 1836, Sam Houston is elected the first president of the Republic of Texas.
On this date in 1877, Chief Crazy Horse is bayoneted and killed by a guard at Camp Robinson. He was supposed resisting his imprisonment.
On this date in 1905, Japan and Russia sign the Treaty of Portsmouth which ends the Russo-Japanese War. President Teddy Roosevelt mediated the peace agreement and would later be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts.
On this date in 1906, the first "legal" forward pass in football was thrown and caught.
On this date in 1927, the first Oswald the Lucky Rabbit cartoon, "Trolley Troubles" is released by Universal Pictures. Walt Disney produced it.
On this date in 1945, a woman suspected of being the infamous "Tokyo Rose" is arrested in Yokohama. Iva Toguri D'Aquino was convicted of one count of treason in 1949, but she was pardoned by President Gerald Ford in 1977 when it was proven that key witnesses against her were forced to lie.
On this date in 1960, Muhammad Ali (then Cassius Clay) is awarded a gold medal for boxing in the Summer Olympic Games in Rome.
On this date in 1969, Lt. William Calley is charged with six specifications of premeditated murder in connection with the My Lai Massacre.
On this date in 1972, terrorists calling themselves Black September attack and take 11 Israelis as hostages at the Summer Olympic Games in Munich.
On this date in 1975, Lynnette "Squeaky" Fromme attempts to assassinate President Gerald R. Ford.
On this date in 1984, Western Australia becomes the last Australian state to abolish capital punishment.
* * *
Famous Folk Born On This Date:
Louis VII of France
Peter IV of Aragon
Jack Daniel
Thomas E. Watson
Cornelius Vanderbilt III
Nap Lajoie
Arthur Nielsen
Daryl F. Zanuck
Jack Valenti
David Hamer
Paul Volcker
Bob Newhart
Carol Lawrence
Dennis Letts
John Danforth
William Devane
George Lazenby
Raquel Welch
Werner Herzog
Al Stewart
Dennis Dugan
Freddie Mercury
Loudon Wainwright III
Chip Davis
Michael Keaton
Dweezil Zappa
Paddy Considine
Rose McGowan
Movie quotes for today come from the twisted but fun film "Jawbreaker" from 1999, which Rose McGowan had a major role in:
Courtney: Ok, reality check, Liz is in the trunk of this car. And she is dead. That is a sad, fucked up thing, but you are going to walk into that school and strut your shit down the hallway like everything is peachy fucking keen.
#2
Courtney: Wait a minute.
Julie: What?
Courtney: Rape... they'll check to se if she was raped right? Maybe Liz had a friend over, you know, Mommy and Daddy's last night away, maybe he's from school, maybe not. But definitely into kink. He got a little rough, went a little to far, you know, there's a fine line between pleasure and pain. She screamed for help, but no one could hear her. Her screams were muffled by the huge candy ball, she tried, but there was nothing, only sugary sweet death.
Marcie: Oh my God, that like, totally gave me the chills.
#3
Narrator: First you need to know something about them. The beautiful ones. The flawless four. Everyone wanted to be them. You know 'em they went to your school too. They totally ruled. The one in the green that's Courtney she was the leader she was like Satan in heels. The blonde Marcie Fox a legend in her own little mind, known to herself as 'foxy'. Oh, the leggy one with the pig tails in Julie, doomed to be popular because of that face and because she was best friends with the one in the pink. That's Liz Purr. She was special. Everybody loved Liz not just because she was beautiful and popular, and rich and smart she was all of those things but more than anything she was sweet. Courtney ruled with terror Liz ruled with kindness, she was like the Princess Di of Reagan High and that pissed Courtney off. Liz Purr was well, she was perfect. I used to dream about what it would be like to be her, Elizabeth Purr. Its a shame about what happened to Liz. That was no way to wake up on your seventeenth birthday.
posted by me at 3:53 PM
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