Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Why North Korea's change in tone should not be a surprise.

From 1976 through 1996, the United States and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) held a very large, annual military training exercise.  It was called Team Spirit.  During my one year tour of duty in South Korea, my unit was deployed in a number of locations during that exercise.  The exercise was cancelled in 1992, held again in 1993 and was used as negotiating tool from 1994 to 1996.  The exercise was scheduled, planned out but ultimately not held.  Each and every year, the North Korean dictatorship would claim Team Spirit was a prelude to an invasion of North Korea.

Max Thunder is a different joint exercise of U.S. and ROK military capabilities.  It has been held annually since 2009.  Like his father Kim Il-sung before him, Kim Jong-un has been making noises annually about how Max Thunder is a threat to his nations security and sovereignty.

This should not be a surprise to the administration of Donald J. Trump.  Did they not consider that scheduling a summit within weeks of this annual exercise would give North Korea an opportunity to walk back their commitment to get ride of their nukes?

Then again, South Korea really hasn't been a priority in the Trump Administration.  It took from his inauguration until last month for him to nominate someone for the job.  He's chosen yet another high-ranking military officer for this job and while the resume of Admiral Harry Harris is impressive, I'm not sure he has the right perspective for the position.

Back in February (and updated in March) of this year, Bloomberg reported that after the firing of Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State, eight of the top ten positions at the State Department were vacant.  One of the two incumbents in those positions has announced he will retire as soon as a successor is selected.  There is a severe lack of knowledge and experience at the top of that department.

I would have done it differently.  Trump would call it weakness, but I would have postponed the exercise.  I wouldn't have canceled it.  That would be a concession.  I'd have told Kim Jong-un that I was postponing in order to have a more harmonious atmosphere prior to the summit.  Then if he were to back away from the table, holding the exercises would have been an appropriate response.

Over four decades of holding major military exercises in South Korea and North Korea has always objected.  Blustered.  Threatened.  Worse yet, U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton is a hawk to the nth degree.  I can't call him a chickenhawk since he did serve in the Army National Guard and the Army Reserve; although he admits he did that to avoid serving in Vietnam.  Donald Trump and John Bolton are not well-suited for handling the precarious situation on the Korean peninsula.

I hope the current dictator of North Korea will get rid of his nukes.  But I don't think it will happen without Trump having to give him something.