Oscar Predictions and Analysis - 2016 movies

The following are the Academy Award nominees for this coming Sunday's Oscars.  The links are to my reviews of these films at www.tailslate.net

Best picture:

“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”

I've seen eight of the nine and liked all of them.  I think Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea are the two best but the margin isn't huge.  I don't think Manchester by the Sea will win because of the "issues" involving its lead actor Casey Affleck and the sexual harassment allegations against him.  It will probably come down to Moonlight and La La Land, with Hidden Figures as the potential underdog possibility.

Lead actor:

Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”

I haven't seen Captain Fantastic.  I predict a win for Denzel Washington although it is possible a La La Land sentiment among the Academy membership might propel Ryan Gosling to Oscar gold.

Lead actress:


Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

I've not seen either Elle or Loving but based on what I have heard about those performances, I'm predicting an Oscar win for Emma Stone.  While the love affair between the Oscars and Meryl Streep is long and strong; and she will get some support just for her willingness to battle the man in the Oval Office in social media, I don't see her winning for this performance.  Natalie Portman was outstanding but the film itself wasn't great and she is already an Academy Award winner.  Although the Golden Globe win for Isabelle Huppert represents the votes of less than 100 people, it might have caused more members of the Academy to take a closer look at her performance.

Supporting actor:


Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”

If it were up to me, I'd just hand the Oscar to Mahershala Ali and not bother with all of the drama.  But it isn't.  Dev Patel is very popular.  Michael Shannon's turn in Nocturnal Animals is also a potential winning one.

Supporting actress:


Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”

If you are a gambler, call your bookie in whatever country you can bet on the Academy Awards and bet big on Viola Davis bringing this one home.  She will almost certainly win.

Best director:


Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”

You could give this one to any of the five and they'd be deserving.  I think it comes down to a race between Damien Chazelle and Kenneth Lonergan. 

Adapted screenplay:

“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hidden Figures”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”

This one is tough.  Fences is the best screenplay of the bunch but that's probably due to the fact so little of the brilliant writing of the late August Wilson was changed in adapting his stage play to the screen.  I predict a win for Moonlight.

Original screenplay:


“Hell or High Water”
“La La Land”
“The Lobster”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“20th Century Women”

I'd pick The Lobster over any of the others but I think La La Land will win.

Cinematography:

“Arrival”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Moonlight”
“Silence”

I think La La Land will win but I'd give this one to either Arrival or Silence.

Best documentary feature:


“Fire at Sea”
“I Am Not Your Negro”
“Life Animated”
“OJ: Made in America”
“13th”

I suspect 13th will eke out a very narrow win over I Am Not Your Negro.

Enjoy the Oscars!