A Tale of Two Governments
On November 6, 2015 in Singapore there was a historic meeting. President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China (Beijing) and President Ma Ying-jeou of the Republic of China (Taiwan) met and shook hands. It was the first time leaders of the two republics met face to face in nearly seven decades.
A friend of mine who is in Taiwan of the moment, and is of Chinese ancestry, sent me a question on Facebook. It was "what's your take on the Chinese and Taiwanese relations? What do you think will happen in the future and what the whole meeting was about after 60 years? There's no way that Taiwan will ever be a part of communist China."
It's a complex question and the answer even more so. There are some similarities between this situation and the schism that has existed on the Korean peninsula since the end of World War II. There are also significant differences.
Both situations involve a division created by political philosophy. Communism versus Democracy/Nationalism. In both instances, formal actions remain to be completed. South Korea never signed the armistice that ended the Korean War. The U. S. signed on their behalf. Taiwan has never formally declared their independence from the mainland. Beijing is on record as saying they will use "violence" against the "rebel island" if it ever makes such a declaration.
However, the population of North Korea is estimated at 25 million. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at $40 billion annually. South Korea has a population estimated at just over 50 million. Their GDP is $1.85 trillion. Taiwan has a population estimated at 24 million and a GDP of $1 trillion. Beijing's population is estimated at 1.3 billion and their GDP is $19 trillion. One can easily see how there are small differences in the size and GDP of the two Koreas while there is a gigantic gulf of difference between the two Chinas.
While the people of Taiwan have never pushed to make their independence formalized, the attitude of the people there is that they will never accept reunification with Beijing. Some in Beijing have suggested that a solution along the lines of what went on in Hong Kong when it was returned to Beijing by the British in 1997, a one nation/two-system solution, so that the people of Taiwan can continue to enjoy their current way of life. It is an idea that doesn't sell well on Taiwan.
What will happen in the future is unclear. Beijing is clearly interested in expansion as evidenced by their island-forming in the South China Sea. Taiwan has no interest and would gain little, if anything, from reunification. I think we will see the status quo maintained for the foreseeable future.
A friend of mine who is in Taiwan of the moment, and is of Chinese ancestry, sent me a question on Facebook. It was "what's your take on the Chinese and Taiwanese relations? What do you think will happen in the future and what the whole meeting was about after 60 years? There's no way that Taiwan will ever be a part of communist China."
It's a complex question and the answer even more so. There are some similarities between this situation and the schism that has existed on the Korean peninsula since the end of World War II. There are also significant differences.
Both situations involve a division created by political philosophy. Communism versus Democracy/Nationalism. In both instances, formal actions remain to be completed. South Korea never signed the armistice that ended the Korean War. The U. S. signed on their behalf. Taiwan has never formally declared their independence from the mainland. Beijing is on record as saying they will use "violence" against the "rebel island" if it ever makes such a declaration.
However, the population of North Korea is estimated at 25 million. Its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated at $40 billion annually. South Korea has a population estimated at just over 50 million. Their GDP is $1.85 trillion. Taiwan has a population estimated at 24 million and a GDP of $1 trillion. Beijing's population is estimated at 1.3 billion and their GDP is $19 trillion. One can easily see how there are small differences in the size and GDP of the two Koreas while there is a gigantic gulf of difference between the two Chinas.
While the people of Taiwan have never pushed to make their independence formalized, the attitude of the people there is that they will never accept reunification with Beijing. Some in Beijing have suggested that a solution along the lines of what went on in Hong Kong when it was returned to Beijing by the British in 1997, a one nation/two-system solution, so that the people of Taiwan can continue to enjoy their current way of life. It is an idea that doesn't sell well on Taiwan.
What will happen in the future is unclear. Beijing is clearly interested in expansion as evidenced by their island-forming in the South China Sea. Taiwan has no interest and would gain little, if anything, from reunification. I think we will see the status quo maintained for the foreseeable future.
posted by me at 7:17 AM
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