Sunday, September 29, 2013

Predictions on a Sunday afternooon

Prediction #1 - The government of the United States of America will shut down at midnight on Monday, the Congress having failed to pass a continuing resolution to fund government operations.

When that happens, it will be almost transparent to most.  Mail will be delivered.  Social Security and Veterans benefit checks will go out, probably on time.  Military pay will probably be delayed, but they will be paid eventually.

But for those who are civilian employees of the federal government who are not considered essential, it will have a serious impact.  They will be furloughed.  They will not be paid.  When the Congress finally acts to fund government operations, they may not be paid retroactively for their lost workdays.

If you want a Small Business Administration loan, your application will stop wherever it is at the moment the government shuts down.  If you are applying for Social Security, your application will probably suffer a delay until government begins operating again.

The spending of those government employees who are furloughed will be reduced.  That will have a ripple effect on the still-recovering economy.

Prediction #2 - If/when prediction #1 comes to pass, all Republican members of the Congress will pay a heavy price.

The Republicans have control of the House, and are within five seats of achieving a majority in the Senate.  Even before prediction #1 comes true, odds are very long against the Republicans gaining any ground in the 2014 Senate elections.  Alabama's Jeff Sessions (R) is probably not vulnerable.  Mark Begich (D) of Alaska is probably safe, although that could change.  Arkansas' Mark Pryor (D) is very vulnerable.  Mark Udall (D) of Colorado is going to be reelected.  Delaware's Chris Coons (D) may face a primary challenge but the seat is probably going to remain in Democratic hands.  In Georgia, Saxby Chambliss (R) will not seek reelection and there is a good chance that seat will go to a Democrat.  Hawaii's interim Senator, Brian Schatz (D) will win election to a full term in 2014.  Jim Risch (R) will almost certainly be reelected.  Dick Durbin (D) is a lock in Illinois unless he kills the Pope or becomes a child molester.   In Iowa, Tom Harkin (D) isn't running again but the seat is probably going to remain on the (D) side of the aisle.  Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas may face a primary challenge, but the winner of the Republican primary will win the general election.  Kentucky's Mitch McConnell (R) is very vulnerable.  Polls show incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) has a double digit lead on whoever is running against her.  The popularity of the state's governor, Bobby Jindal might help close the gap, but she'll be reelected.  Maine's Susan Collins (R) is safe.  In Massachusetts, Ed Markey (he replaced John Kerry when he became Secretary of State) will win election to a full term.  The Michigan  seat held by the retiring Carl Levin (D) will probably remain on the Democrat side of the aisle.  In Minnesota, Al Franken (D) might be vulnerable.  Maybe.  Mississippi's Thad Cochran (R) will almost certainly retire, but the Republicans will probably hold on to that seat.  Whoever is the Democratic nominee to replace the retiring Max Baucus in Montana does face an uphill battle.  The seat in Nebraska is up for grabs.  New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will face a stiff challenge but she is probably safe.  That the New Jersey race has tightened a bit, with Steve Lonegan (R) gaining some ground on Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) is meaningless.  Booker will win, possibly in a landslide.  Tom Udall (D) of New Mexico faces a tight race, but will probably prevail.  Kay Hagan (D) of North Carolina leads by double digits over any potential Republican opponent, leading most by 15 points or more.  Oklahoma's Jim Inhofe (R) will turn 79 before the election, but he is running and will probably win.  Oregon's Jeff Merkey (D) is very vulnerable.  Jack Reed (D) will be reelected in Rhode Island.  In South Carolina, Lindsey Graham (R) may not win the primary, but whoever wins that primary will be elected.  Interim SC Senator Tim Scott (R) will win a full term in 2014.  South Dakota is up for grabs, but probably goes Democrat.  Lamar Alexander (R) will probably win another term in Tennessee.  Texas Republican John Cornyn is probably safe.  Mark Warner (D) is probably safe in Virginia.  West Virginia incumbent Jay Rockefeller (D) will not seek reelection and will almost certainly be replaced by the state's first ever female senator.  Shelley Moore Capito (R) is the likely winner of that race.  In Wyoming, the Republican incumbent faces a primary challenge but again, the winner of that race wins in the general election.

So as you can see, the Republicans might have gained a seat or two in the Senate, but no more than three.  They'd need four just to tie.  In the wake of a government shutdown, they might actually lose ground as all of the above goes into flux if the shutdown becomes prolonged.  It will hurt the Republicans seeking election (or reelection) who are currently members of Congress.

In the House (and I'm not going to review 435 election campaigns here), Republicans have a 32 seat majority with three seats currently vacant.  Normally they would stand a good chance of gaining ground in an election held when a President is mid-term.  But the government shutting down will cost them seats instead.  They may lose control of the House altogether.

Prediction #3 - If/when the government shuts down, it will become a problem in the 2016 Presidential election for whoever has the Republican nomination.

* * *

I haven't mentioned this before, but along with all of the other illnesses and stuff I deal with, I have a mild case of diabetes.  I don't use or need insulin.  I take a small dose of one drug and my blood sugar is always in a normal range as a result.

But I am suffering the effects of this disease in one instance at the moment.  I have three (very small) open wounds on my leg that are being very stubborn about not healing.  One of them has been around since early August and has shrunk no further in the last two-plus weeks.

I finally got to the wound-care people at the VA and now that I'm getting better treatment, I may finally get to the point where I no longer have to have someone clean and dress those three wounds, twice  day.

I mention this because while I normally sing the praises of the VA and its systems, I was a little disappointed this past week.  First off, because they should have sent me to a wound care specialist right away.  In fact, the ER doctor I saw in early August put in a consult for it, but no one bothered to act on it.

What was really annoying though was seeing non-medical personnel employed at the VA being typical government bureaucrats, meaning they're getting paid but passing the buck at every opportunity.  We are told we need to go to this one office to sign up for on-line access to our healthcare information, records, appointments and best of all; secure messaging with our providers.  I went where I'd been told to go.  The woman who works there is someone I'd had a less than satisfying encounter with in the past.  She told me I needed to go see so-and-so in another office and he would arrange to sign me up.  Now I'd been to this office once before to sign up, and the person behind the counter had tried to help me; saying this was the place to do this.  We'd been unable to complete the process.  Now I was back and being told to go elsewhere.  Walked over to elsewhere to find that the person I was supposed to get help from wasn't there.  He had the day off.  Went back to the woman (who is very nice, but not very helpful) and was told to sign a paper.  After I signed it, she handed me written instructions to sign up at home, on-line.

Now I'm a bright individual and can probably navigate whatever the sign-up process is.  But considering there'd been a problem before, I wanted to do it there in case I ran into a similar problem.  But once she'd handed me those instructions, I might as well have no longer existed.  In her world, I didn't.

On the same day I saw another veteran trying to get a clerk in the primary care clinic to help him.  He'd been being helped by another clerk in the past, and she told him that this particular clerk was off until Monday (it was Thursday morning) and he'd have to come back then.  He mentioned the name of another clerk who'd helped him in the past and got the same response.  "She's off until Monday, come back then."  Only when he started to shuffle away and I glared at her, planning to come tell her off that she called him back saying "wait a minute, I'll see if I can help."

She's a clerk.  Maybe she'll have to duplicate some of the effort and work that those other clerks had already done, but that's a hell of a lot better than sending him away without whatever he needed for four days.

If it weren't for myself and the other veterans, that clerk wouldn't have such a cushy job where she can tell people to go away and come back another day.  So she shouldn't be doing that.

* * *

Random Ponderings:

How many people honestly believe that "play ball" is the final two words of the Star Spangled Banner?

Will someone make a tribute video of all the different "dog Spot" animals that appeared in Cal Worthington's commercials?  That's a lot of dogs.

Firing Lane Kiffin won't help as much as the expiration of the NCAA sanctions against USC will.

Maksim Chmerkovsky is dating Kate Upton.  I'm starting a pool on how long this will last and taking 97 days in it.  Let me know your guess.

The nanny who formerly cared for the child of Alanis Morissette is suing for $130,000, claiming she is owed for overtime and was kept a virtual prisoner in the child's room.

Khloe Kardashian no longer uses the last name Odom on Twitter.  Is that the social media equivalent of filing for divorce?

It looks to me that Kareem Jackson deserved that flag for a "body-slam" in today's game between Seattle and Houston in the NFL.  The whistle had blown the play dead BEFORE Jackson lifted Doug Baldwin from the ground before giving him a WWE like "suplex".

Senator Ted Cruz trying to blame Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for the impending government shutdown is the epitome of projection.

I want to put a Joe Biden joke here but it wouldn't go over well.

Count me among the 15% of Americans who do not drink coffee on Coffee Day.  Then again, I am allergic to it.

Miss World makes sense.  Competition is limited to Earth.  But Miss Universe suddenly seems inappropriate with the continuing discoveries indicating life may exist on other planets outside of this solar system.

While we wait to see what Congress does, the FHA pulled a fast one, announcing on Friday that they need a $1.7 billion bailout.  Reverse mortgages are losing money.

* * *

This Date In History:

522 BC – Darius I of Persia kills the Magian usurper Gaumâta, securing his hold as king of the Persian Empire.
480 BC – Battle of Salamis: The Greek fleet under Themistocles defeats the Persian fleet under Xerxes I.
61 BC – Pompey the Great celebrates his third triumph for victories over the pirates and the end of the Mithridatic Wars on his 45th birthday.
1227 – Frederick II, Holy Roman Emperor, is excommunicated by Pope Gregory IX for his failure to participate in the Crusades.
1364 – Battle of Auray: English forces defeat the French in Brittany; end of the Breton War of Succession.
1567 – At a dinner, the Duke of Alba arrests the Count of Egmont and the Count of Hoorn for treason.
1650 – Henry Robinson opens his Office of Addresses and Encounters in Threadneedle Street, London.
1717 – An earthquake strikes Antigua Guatemala, destroying much of the city's architecture and making authorities consider moving the capital to a different city.
1789 – The United States Department of War first establishes a regular army with a strength of several hundred men.
1789 – The 1st United States Congress adjourns.
1829 – The Metropolitan Police of London, later also known as the Met, is founded.
1848 – Battle of Pákozd: stalemate between Hungarian and Croatian forces at Pákozd; the first battle of the Hungarian Revolution of 1848.
1850 – The Roman Catholic hierarchy is re-established in England and Wales by Pope Pius IX.
1864 – American Civil War: The Battle of Chaffin's Farm is fought.
1885 – The first practical public electric tramway in the world is opened in Blackpool, England.
1907 – The cornerstone is laid at Washington National Cathedral in the U.S. capital.
1911 – Italy declares war on the Ottoman Empire.
1918 – World War I, Battle of St. Quentin Canal: The Hindenburg Line is broken by Allied forces. Bulgaria signs an armistice.
1923 – The British Mandate for Palestine takes effect, creating Mandatory Palestine.
1932 – Chaco War: Last day of the Battle of Boquerón between Paraguay and Bolivia.
1938 – Munich Agreement: Germany is given permission from France, Italy, and Great Britain to seize the territory of Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia. The meeting takes place in Munich, and leaders from neither the Soviet Union nor Czechoslovakia attend.
1941 – World War II: Holocaust in Kiev, Soviet Union: German Einsatzgruppe C begins the Babi Yar massacre, according to the Einsatzgruppen operational situation report.
1949 – The Communist Party of China writes the Common Programme for the future People's Republic of China.
1951 – The first live sporting event seen coast-to-coast in the United States, a college football game between Duke and the University of Pittsburgh, is televised on NBC.
1954 – The convention establishing CERN (the European Organization for Nuclear Research) is signed.
1957 – 20 MCi (740 petabecquerels) of radioactive material is released in an explosion at the Soviet Mayak nuclear plant at Chelyabinsk.
1960 – Nikita Khrushchev, leader of Soviet Union, disrupts a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly with a number of angry outbursts.
1962 – Alouette 1, the first Canadian satellite, is launched.
1963 – The second period of the Second Vatican Council opens.
1964 – The Argentine comic strip Mafalda is published for the first time.
1966 – The Chevrolet Camaro, originally named Panther, is introduced.
1971 – Oman joins the Arab League.
1972 – Sino-Japanese relations: Japan establishes diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China after breaking official ties with the Republic of China.
1975 – WGPR in Detroit, Michigan, becomes the world's first black-owned-and-operated television station.
1979 – Pope John Paul II becomes the first pope to set foot on Irish soil with his pastoral visit to the Republic of Ireland.
1982 – The 1982 Chicago Tylenol murders begin when the first of seven individuals dies in metropolitan Chicago.
1988 – Space Shuttle: NASA launches STS-26, the return to flight mission, after the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster.
1990 – Construction of the Washington National Cathedral is completed.
1990 – The YF-22, which would later become the F-22 Raptor, flies for the first time.
1991 – Military coup in Haiti (1991 Haitian coup d'état).
1992 – Brazilian President Fernando Collor de Mello is impeached.
1995 – The United States Navy disbands Fighter Squadron 84 (VF-84), nicknamed the "Jolly Rogers".

Famous Folk Born On This Date:

Pompey
Tintoretto
Caravaggio
Admiral Horatio Nelson
Enrico Fermi
Greer Garson
Steve Forrest
Pete McCloskey
Anita Ekberg
Robert Benton
Skandor Akbar
Stuart M. Kaminsky
Jerry Lee Lewis
Silvio Berlusconi
Tommy Boyce
Larry Linville
Madeline Kahn
Ian McShane
Steve Teisch
Lech Walesa
Mike Post
Bryant Gumbel
Gabor Csupo
Andrew Dice Clay
David Sammartino
Stephanie Miller
Jill Whelan
Erika Eleniak
Natasha Gregson Wagner
Kevin Durant

Movie quotes today come from "S.W.A.T." in honor of the birthday of Steve Forrest, who passed away this year.  The original "Hondo" in the television series, he was an underrated talent.

Hondo: You know what they say, you're either SWAT or you're not.

#2

Street: So why'd you pick me?
Hondo: To piss off the captain.

#3

Chris Sanchez: Just because I bought you a drink doesn't mean you're getting laid tonight.
Street: So, what does two drinks mean?

#4

Neighbor in Alley: Y'all ain't got nothing better to do than to be haulin' off black people off to jail? Just perpetuatin' a cycle you know!
Deke: [putting the criminal in the police car] Let's see how liberal you are when he breaks into your place!
Neighbor in Alley: MMmm hm!
Deke: Mmm hm my ass!