Hurricanes, Recency Bias and Attracting Clicks
Headlines I have seen online this afternoon/evening:
Hurricane Ian live updates: Biden warns of ‘substantial loss of life’ as storm strengthens back into a hurricane
Hurricane Ian - live: Storm may be ‘deadliest in Florida history’ as path heading to South Carolina
Within the last hour, there are nine confirmed deaths in Florida. Each one of them is tragic. The death toll will probably grow although we hope it won't. But is this the deadliest hurricane in Florida history? Not even close.
Labor Day 1935. A hurricane (we did not name them back then) battered Florida. It was a Category 5 hurricane and 423 people died. And that is NOT the deadliest hurricane in Florida history
The 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane resulted in 772 fatalities. I doubt Hurricane Ian will get anywhere near that number of deaths. Building codes have changed. The ability to evacuate has improved significantly.
But that wasnt the deadliest Florida hurricane either. The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane had an estimated death toll of 3,000.
We have a bias in comparing major events to one another. We tend to ignore the older events. The media drives this, at least a part of this bias. It focuses on what is happening right this second, trying to make it appear as the worst, the deadliest, the bloodiest, whatever. If it bleeds, it ledes is still as accurate as ever.
***
What kind of fool describes a Category 5 hurricane as a nothing burger? No, not Eric Trump or Donald Trump, Jr.
Meet Joy Gendusa. She is the CEO of PostcardMania dot com. You can read about what she did and how she tried to take it back here. When I was sent to an Air Force Base in Biloxi, MS in the fall of 1977 for training, we were told a story during our in-brief. Eight years earlier, Hurricane Camille blasted Biloxi. It utterly obliterated the Richelieu Apartments. Not too long after the hurricane had done its damage, Walter Cronkite was at the site of the concrete slab that was all that remained of those apartments. He said this:
"This is the site of the Richelieu Apartments in Pass Christian, Miss. This is the place where 23 people laughed in the face of death. And where 23 people died."
The story was told of a hurricane party, thrown by people who also believed the impending storm was a nothing burger. The probleem is, the party never happened. But that wasn't proven until years later. What I heard in that in-brief etched in stone in my brain that hurricanes were not to be taken lightly.
I am tired and therefore rambling. The main point I wanted to make is about recency bias. The minor point is that we must never take tropical cyclones lightly. Their ability to destroy is virtually unlimited.
Hurricane Ian live updates: Biden warns of ‘substantial loss of life’ as storm strengthens back into a hurricane
Hurricane Ian - live: Storm may be ‘deadliest in Florida history’ as path heading to South Carolina
Within the last hour, there are nine confirmed deaths in Florida. Each one of them is tragic. The death toll will probably grow although we hope it won't. But is this the deadliest hurricane in Florida history? Not even close.
Labor Day 1935. A hurricane (we did not name them back then) battered Florida. It was a Category 5 hurricane and 423 people died. And that is NOT the deadliest hurricane in Florida history
The 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane resulted in 772 fatalities. I doubt Hurricane Ian will get anywhere near that number of deaths. Building codes have changed. The ability to evacuate has improved significantly.
But that wasnt the deadliest Florida hurricane either. The 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane had an estimated death toll of 3,000.
We have a bias in comparing major events to one another. We tend to ignore the older events. The media drives this, at least a part of this bias. It focuses on what is happening right this second, trying to make it appear as the worst, the deadliest, the bloodiest, whatever. If it bleeds, it ledes is still as accurate as ever.
***
What kind of fool describes a Category 5 hurricane as a nothing burger? No, not Eric Trump or Donald Trump, Jr.
Meet Joy Gendusa. She is the CEO of PostcardMania dot com. You can read about what she did and how she tried to take it back here. When I was sent to an Air Force Base in Biloxi, MS in the fall of 1977 for training, we were told a story during our in-brief. Eight years earlier, Hurricane Camille blasted Biloxi. It utterly obliterated the Richelieu Apartments. Not too long after the hurricane had done its damage, Walter Cronkite was at the site of the concrete slab that was all that remained of those apartments. He said this:
"This is the site of the Richelieu Apartments in Pass Christian, Miss. This is the place where 23 people laughed in the face of death. And where 23 people died."
The story was told of a hurricane party, thrown by people who also believed the impending storm was a nothing burger. The probleem is, the party never happened. But that wasn't proven until years later. What I heard in that in-brief etched in stone in my brain that hurricanes were not to be taken lightly.
I am tired and therefore rambling. The main point I wanted to make is about recency bias. The minor point is that we must never take tropical cyclones lightly. Their ability to destroy is virtually unlimited.
posted by me at 5:25 PM
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