A blueprint for the Democratic Party from now through 2018
With Donald Trump our nation's president-elect and Republicans in control of both the House and the Senate; we are looking at a solid two-year period of one-party rule. While I am again a registered independent voter, I do not want to see one-party dominance of Washington, D.C. by either side of our current two-party system. That is why I am working on a blueprint for the Democratic party to make gains in the Congress in 2018.
The first step has to be addressing the absence of trustworthy leadership at the Democratic National Committee. In the wake of the shenanigans of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and the ethical violations of Donna Brazile, someone who is above reproach and capable of leading the party forward is required.
While some are musing that Michelle Obama should be the party's presidential nominee in 2020, I think she is the ideal choice to become the Chair of the DNC. There are no skeletons in her closet. She is a true leader, and I believe her to have the vision needed to take the party forward in the wake of this debacle.
No matter who is the new DNC Chair, he or she must promise and provide transparency in the process of selecting the 2020 nominee. The issue of super-delegates and whether or not they should be part of that nominating process going forward must be thoroughly reviewed. That the absence of such super-delegates resulted in the 1988 nomination of Michael Dukakis may be an argument in favor of maintaining the status quo; however, the level of distrust that the actions of Wasserman-Schultz and her co-horts has created must be addressed. A "one-person, one-vote" nominating process might be a good first step in that direction.
* * *
Once the void in the DNC leadership has been addressed, the party must turn its attention to 2018 and the mid-term elections. A lot of what will take place in the mid-term elections will depend on just how well or poorly the Trump Administration performs with control of Congress. I do not expect them to do well enough to avoid the historical trend of the president's party losing seats in the mid-term election.
Let's look at the history of those mid-term elections since 1920.
On average, the mid-term election of a newly elected president in their first term sees that president's political party lose an average of 25 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate. Given that yesterday's election is slated to result in a 51/49 Republican majority in the Senate and a 239/192 Republican majority in the House; it would seem the Democratic Party could take control of both Houses of Congress in the 2018 mid-term elections.
At present there are 25 seats (23 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats) held by Democrats at risk and only 8 seats held by Republicans at risk. Is it possible that given the much larger risk to the Democratic Party that they could actually gain seats? It is possible but seems difficult.
However, it is much more likely that Democrats could gain control of the House, especially if there is major dissatisfaction with what the Trump administration does during his first 18 months in office.
The key will be the new DNC leadership making a detailed and coordinated plan to defend every Senate seat, especially those most in jeopardy. They must work with every member of the House to ensure that every single Democrat seeking reelection is successful.
It is a difficult but doable goal to gain control of the House. It is a much more difficult, but still achievable goal to take control of the Senate. A lot will depend on just how poorly the Trump administration governs.
But an apathetic effort by those of us who were disgusted and disappointed by the 2016 election results will doom this opportunity before it starts. Everyone has a role and it isn't limited to voting.
We can do this. We must do this.
The first step has to be addressing the absence of trustworthy leadership at the Democratic National Committee. In the wake of the shenanigans of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and the ethical violations of Donna Brazile, someone who is above reproach and capable of leading the party forward is required.
While some are musing that Michelle Obama should be the party's presidential nominee in 2020, I think she is the ideal choice to become the Chair of the DNC. There are no skeletons in her closet. She is a true leader, and I believe her to have the vision needed to take the party forward in the wake of this debacle.
No matter who is the new DNC Chair, he or she must promise and provide transparency in the process of selecting the 2020 nominee. The issue of super-delegates and whether or not they should be part of that nominating process going forward must be thoroughly reviewed. That the absence of such super-delegates resulted in the 1988 nomination of Michael Dukakis may be an argument in favor of maintaining the status quo; however, the level of distrust that the actions of Wasserman-Schultz and her co-horts has created must be addressed. A "one-person, one-vote" nominating process might be a good first step in that direction.
* * *
Once the void in the DNC leadership has been addressed, the party must turn its attention to 2018 and the mid-term elections. A lot of what will take place in the mid-term elections will depend on just how well or poorly the Trump Administration performs with control of Congress. I do not expect them to do well enough to avoid the historical trend of the president's party losing seats in the mid-term election.
Let's look at the history of those mid-term elections since 1920.
| President | Year | House | Senate | |||
| Warren Harding | 1922 | -77 | -7 | |||
| Calvin Coolidge | 1926 | -9 | -7 | |||
| Herbert Hoover | 1930 | -52 | -8 | |||
| Franklin Delano Roosevelt | 1934 | 9 | 9 | |||
| Harry S. Truman | 1950 | -28 | -5 | |||
| Dwight D. Eisenhower | 1954 | -18 | -2 | |||
| John F. Kennedy | 1962 | -4 | 2 | |||
| Richard Nixon | 1970 | -12 | 1 | |||
| Jimmy Carter | 1978 | -15 | -3 | |||
| Ronald Reagan | 1982 | -26 | 0 | |||
| George Bush | 1990 | -8 | -1 | |||
| Bill Clinton | 1994 | -52 | -8 | |||
| George W. Bush | 2002 | 8 | 2 | |||
| Barrack Obama | 2010 | -63 | -6 | |||
On average, the mid-term election of a newly elected president in their first term sees that president's political party lose an average of 25 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate. Given that yesterday's election is slated to result in a 51/49 Republican majority in the Senate and a 239/192 Republican majority in the House; it would seem the Democratic Party could take control of both Houses of Congress in the 2018 mid-term elections.
At present there are 25 seats (23 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats) held by Democrats at risk and only 8 seats held by Republicans at risk. Is it possible that given the much larger risk to the Democratic Party that they could actually gain seats? It is possible but seems difficult.
However, it is much more likely that Democrats could gain control of the House, especially if there is major dissatisfaction with what the Trump administration does during his first 18 months in office.
The key will be the new DNC leadership making a detailed and coordinated plan to defend every Senate seat, especially those most in jeopardy. They must work with every member of the House to ensure that every single Democrat seeking reelection is successful.
It is a difficult but doable goal to gain control of the House. It is a much more difficult, but still achievable goal to take control of the Senate. A lot will depend on just how poorly the Trump administration governs.
But an apathetic effort by those of us who were disgusted and disappointed by the 2016 election results will doom this opportunity before it starts. Everyone has a role and it isn't limited to voting.
We can do this. We must do this.
posted by me at 7:09 PM
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