And the Oscar will/should go to...

It's that time of year again.  March 2nd will be upon us very quickly and even though I haven't finished writing all of the reviews I need to write, or the annual top ten lists, I'm going to steal a moment out for something much less important; my annual look at Oscars.  What I think will win, versus what I think *should* win.  Let's start with the biggest race of all, Best Picture.  The nominees are: (if there is a link, it's to my review of the film)

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

It's very difficult to pick one film in this group that I think is the absolute "best" picture of the year.  I think four of them are very close together, American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska and 12 Years A Slave.  If I am forced to pick just one that I believe should win, it would be 12 Years A Slave.

I also predict that 12 Years A Slave will win, but I wouldn't be surprised if American Hustle won.  Gravity is a great film and apparently much loved by the "industry" community.

* * *

Looking at Best Director in the era where up to ten films can be nominated for Best Picture is as much about who isn't nominated as who is.  First the nominees:

Alexander Payne - Nebraska
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Martin Scoresese - The Wolf of Wall Street
Steve McQueen - 12 Years A Slave

A lot of people think the Best Director and Best Picture awards should go hand in hand.  American Hustle, Nebraska and 12 Years a Slave are better films than Gravity, in my opinion, but I think Gravity is probably the best directed film.  So I'd like to see Alfonso Cuaron win.

I predict Steve McQueen will actually win and he's very deserving.  12 Years A Slave is a brilliant achievement.  But I won't be shocked to see either Alexander Payne or David O. Russell honored with this award either.  Both were nominated within the last two years with outstanding films and they did not win.

I was surprised by the omission of the Coen Brothers from this category.  Same for Jean-Marc Vallee.  While The Wolf of Wall Street is a very good movie, it isn't as good as a number of Scorsese films that came before it.  Maybe it is unfair to hold someone to a higher standard based on prior works. 

* * *

Best Actor in a Lead Role is a tough one this year.  I believe one performance to be head and shoulders better than the others, but I'm not sure if he will win the awards.  The nominees are:

Christian Bale - American Hustle
Bruce Dern - Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years A Slave
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club

Performances involving physical transformations are by nature more challenging for the actor.  While Christian Bale did undergo some transformation for his role, what Matthew McConaughey did was awe-inspiring.  Then he went out and gave the best performance of his career thus far.  That's pretty amazing, considering that in the last few years he's done incredible work in Bernie, Killer Joe, Magic Mike and Mud.  While all five of the nominees were outstanding in their roles this year, I think McConaughey should win.

However, I suspect that Bruce Dern will finally take home an Oscar, under the "body of work" concept many of the long-time Academy members seem to hold dear.  While he has only one prior Oscar nomination, his filmography is filled with wonderful work.  In Westerns like The War Wagon and Hang Em High, in comedies like Support Your Local Sherriff and Smile, and in one of my favorite sci-fi films, Silent Running, he has shown off his tremendous talent.  My pick of McConaughey does stand a chance, as does Chiwetel Ejiofor in what might become a 12 Years A Slave year.

* * *

I think the race for Best Actress in a Leading Role is one of the easiest one to predict this year.  The nominees are:

Amy Adams - American Hustle
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep - August:  Osage County

Five sterling performances.  They were all wonderful and made the most of the role they played.  If I were to be in charge of making this particular pick, I'd probably put the five names on the wall and throw a dart.  Whichever one the dart hit would win.  But if I have to pick just one, I'm going to choose Amy Adams.

I also believe she will win.  She's the only one of the four who has never won an Oscar in either Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress.  I won't be surprised though, if Judi Dench were to win a long overdue Best Actress award, since she's been nominated for that four times before without a win.

* * *

Best Supporting Actor is an extremely competitive category and yet I think this IS the easiest category to predict this year.  The nominees are:

Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Again, a group of superb performances.  However, I find what Jared Leto did with his role as "Rayon" in Dallas Buyers Club to be the clear stand-out in this category.  He should definitely win.

It's a small group, the actors who were nominated for an Oscar in their debut feature film.  Those who are in this club and then went on to win comprise an even smaller group, and sadly Barkhad Abdi will almost certainly not be joining the latter club.  However, he made an auspicious debut and earned that nomination.  I predict Jared Leto will join Matthew McConaughey as Dallas Buyers Club will sweep the male acting Oscars this year.