Thoughts on Sports Stuff
I don't normally blog about sports, but since the Lakers lost in the first round of the playoffs I've been meaning to do this.
Metta World Peace
Pau Gasol
Dwight Howard
Kobe Bryant
Steve Nash
That was the starting line-up for the Lakers in the opening game of the regular season. On paper it looks tremendous, but they managed to lose to a Mavericks team that was missing its big star, Dirk Nowitzki. "They haven't been together long enough". "They need time to gel as a unit".
There is no denying that there were times they did well during the regular season, in spite of the huge number of games key players were lost due to injuries. But the bottom line here is that while they look great on paper, this group of five players was not bound for the NBA Finals. Here are a few daunting numbers that illustrate why.
34
33
28
35
39
Those represent the ages of those five players at the mid-point of next season. The average age of NBA players is somewhere between 26.5 and 27 and has been within that range for ten years. Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are 29, 28 and 31 respectively. While there is something to be said for age and experience translating into leadership on the floor, the need to be able to compete in athleticism cannot be overstated. The Lakers will be too old to go very far in 2012/2013 with that same starting line-up.
No disrespect intended to the league's self-identified expert in who should be released for next season through "amnesty", Mr. Mark Cuban, but he's crazy if he thinks the Lakers should really do that to Kobe Bryant. He is one of the three players in that line-up from this season that they should keep and have playing next season (even if he won't be ready by the first regular-season game). Even if it would free up a huge amount of salary cap money, they'd still have to pay him. The fan base would be furious. And he's definitely motivated to come back strong and go out with a title. If he has the other players around him who will allow him a chance to do that.
Dwight Howard is the most important piece of the puzzle. They need to re-sign him and prevent him from going anywhere in the free agent market. He's young. He will be better next year, assuming he continues to improve physically (he did suffer a major injury). He can learn to be a better free-thrower, even if he'll never be a 70 percenter.
Pau Gasol's physical health is a question mark. But assuming that he recovers, he needs to stay right where he is. He gives the Lakers a serious scoring threat at the power forward position, he can rebound and he can play decent enough defense when he wants to. Given that Howard is easily the best defensive center in the league when he wants to be, Gasol doesn't have to be a brilliant defender.
That leaves Metta World Peace and Steve Nash. I think Nash is one of the best point guards that have ever played the game. He's probably still the "smartest" court general in the game. But he will turn 39 during the next season, he has slowed down and is not the player he once was physically. Now if he were willing to take a back-up role, he'd be a great player to bring in for limited minutes. A strong upgrade from Steve Blake in the ability to generate offense and make those around him on the floor better. His defensive liabilities would not be as important in a reduced minutes situation.
When MWP was one of the best small forward defenders in the league, he was the guy you wanted on the floor who could totally shut down the opposition's small forward. But that's not who he is any longer. He's not the scorer he once was, even though his PPG this year were increased, due to his having to step up in the absence of other scoring threats. While coming back from a meniscus tear isn't nearly as difficult as an achilles tear is, it's not a guarantee he will return to 100% of what he was in 2012/13.
So who should they amnesty? Steve Nash. While for the 2013/14 season, they'd free up $10 million more in salary cap money by saying goodbye to Pau Gasol, the truth is that both are owed roughly $19 million. The difference is that Nash's contract runs for two more years. The cost for "freeing" either is about the same. Assuming both remain healthy in 2013/14, Gasol is more critical to the team's ability to win in the post-season. MWP has an option to renew his contract for $7.7 million. Since you can give amnesty to only one player, Nash is a better option than MWP.
If the Lakers can deal MWP (doubtful) and give amnesty to Nash (possible), they'd have some money to go out and get a good point-guard in the off-season. The pickings in the point-guard pool among the available unrestricted free agents are slim. But C.J. Watson will probably not exercise his player option with the Nets in favor of trying to get a better deal. He could be had for the right price. Or, they could go in a different direction entirely. Start the season with Steve Blake at the point until Kobe returns, and then let him play the point. Then they could sign a shooting guard. Kobe can be an incredible facilitator with the ball, although he isn't the natural floor general that a Steve Nash or Chris Paul is.
As for replacing MWP, that's easy. Re-sign Trevor Ariza. He's available. He's still young and physically gifted.
The bench doesn't matter, because if you don't fix the starting five, the bench won't matter.
In the end, Jim Buss will probably screw it up anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter what I think. Now if Jeannie Buss were in charge, Phil would be coaching and the line-up wouldn't look like it probably will next season.
Metta World Peace
Pau Gasol
Dwight Howard
Kobe Bryant
Steve Nash
That was the starting line-up for the Lakers in the opening game of the regular season. On paper it looks tremendous, but they managed to lose to a Mavericks team that was missing its big star, Dirk Nowitzki. "They haven't been together long enough". "They need time to gel as a unit".
There is no denying that there were times they did well during the regular season, in spite of the huge number of games key players were lost due to injuries. But the bottom line here is that while they look great on paper, this group of five players was not bound for the NBA Finals. Here are a few daunting numbers that illustrate why.
34
33
28
35
39
Those represent the ages of those five players at the mid-point of next season. The average age of NBA players is somewhere between 26.5 and 27 and has been within that range for ten years. Chris Bosh, LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are 29, 28 and 31 respectively. While there is something to be said for age and experience translating into leadership on the floor, the need to be able to compete in athleticism cannot be overstated. The Lakers will be too old to go very far in 2012/2013 with that same starting line-up.
No disrespect intended to the league's self-identified expert in who should be released for next season through "amnesty", Mr. Mark Cuban, but he's crazy if he thinks the Lakers should really do that to Kobe Bryant. He is one of the three players in that line-up from this season that they should keep and have playing next season (even if he won't be ready by the first regular-season game). Even if it would free up a huge amount of salary cap money, they'd still have to pay him. The fan base would be furious. And he's definitely motivated to come back strong and go out with a title. If he has the other players around him who will allow him a chance to do that.
Dwight Howard is the most important piece of the puzzle. They need to re-sign him and prevent him from going anywhere in the free agent market. He's young. He will be better next year, assuming he continues to improve physically (he did suffer a major injury). He can learn to be a better free-thrower, even if he'll never be a 70 percenter.
Pau Gasol's physical health is a question mark. But assuming that he recovers, he needs to stay right where he is. He gives the Lakers a serious scoring threat at the power forward position, he can rebound and he can play decent enough defense when he wants to. Given that Howard is easily the best defensive center in the league when he wants to be, Gasol doesn't have to be a brilliant defender.
That leaves Metta World Peace and Steve Nash. I think Nash is one of the best point guards that have ever played the game. He's probably still the "smartest" court general in the game. But he will turn 39 during the next season, he has slowed down and is not the player he once was physically. Now if he were willing to take a back-up role, he'd be a great player to bring in for limited minutes. A strong upgrade from Steve Blake in the ability to generate offense and make those around him on the floor better. His defensive liabilities would not be as important in a reduced minutes situation.
When MWP was one of the best small forward defenders in the league, he was the guy you wanted on the floor who could totally shut down the opposition's small forward. But that's not who he is any longer. He's not the scorer he once was, even though his PPG this year were increased, due to his having to step up in the absence of other scoring threats. While coming back from a meniscus tear isn't nearly as difficult as an achilles tear is, it's not a guarantee he will return to 100% of what he was in 2012/13.
So who should they amnesty? Steve Nash. While for the 2013/14 season, they'd free up $10 million more in salary cap money by saying goodbye to Pau Gasol, the truth is that both are owed roughly $19 million. The difference is that Nash's contract runs for two more years. The cost for "freeing" either is about the same. Assuming both remain healthy in 2013/14, Gasol is more critical to the team's ability to win in the post-season. MWP has an option to renew his contract for $7.7 million. Since you can give amnesty to only one player, Nash is a better option than MWP.
If the Lakers can deal MWP (doubtful) and give amnesty to Nash (possible), they'd have some money to go out and get a good point-guard in the off-season. The pickings in the point-guard pool among the available unrestricted free agents are slim. But C.J. Watson will probably not exercise his player option with the Nets in favor of trying to get a better deal. He could be had for the right price. Or, they could go in a different direction entirely. Start the season with Steve Blake at the point until Kobe returns, and then let him play the point. Then they could sign a shooting guard. Kobe can be an incredible facilitator with the ball, although he isn't the natural floor general that a Steve Nash or Chris Paul is.
As for replacing MWP, that's easy. Re-sign Trevor Ariza. He's available. He's still young and physically gifted.
The bench doesn't matter, because if you don't fix the starting five, the bench won't matter.
In the end, Jim Buss will probably screw it up anyway, so I guess it doesn't matter what I think. Now if Jeannie Buss were in charge, Phil would be coaching and the line-up wouldn't look like it probably will next season.
posted by me at 1:39 PM
<< Home